Bookstores Will Survive--But NOT in Superstore Mode

I always deeply suspected that bookstores would never disappear. You see, while completely new technology is exploding the digital publishing business and e-books, guess what? That same technology, and some morphed from it, has leaked over into the print industry as well, resulting in faster and more cost-effective production costs in POD (print-on-demand), improved paper and inking, delivery, etc.

I further suspect that a whole parallel "printed-word tech world", still in it's forced-infancy, will blossom and produce some future, mind-boggling results.

Although bookstores will never disappear completely, the old superstore model will...The surviving bookstores will be locally defined and driven...just like the old neighborhood bar & grille.

Jim Milliot, co-editorial director of Publishers Weekly, has this to say:

Digital Book World: Publishing CEOs Optimistic About the Future

The five publishing executives who took part on Digital Book World’s CEO panel Tuesday morning all agreed that while the industry is undergoing unprecedented changes, their companies are moving to adapt to new realities. Their view was consistent with a survey contacted by James McQuivey of Forrester Research that found 83% of publishing executives believed their company is capable of managing the digital transition.

McQuivey presented highlights of the study just before the CEO panel Tuesday, which also found that 80% of execs believe their staffs will need retraining to compete effectively in the digital marketplace. McQuivey also presented some research findings, including the estimate that consumers spend $1 billion on e-books in 2010, a figure that should reach at least $1.3 billion in 2011. The consensus among those surveyed was that e-books would comprise half of all trade book units by 2014, and 53% said they expected print sales to decrease this year.

The CEOs agreed that they face many challenges, but said there are many opportunities as well. Jane Friedman, CEO of Open Road Integrated Media and former CEO of HarperCollins, said the industry is “vitale and vibrant,” adding that at no point in her career as she seen such change and that things will never go back to the way they were. “It’s the end of the beginning”of the digital transition, Friedman said. Macmillan’s COO said publishing is entering a “golden age,” but added that the question is will it be a golden age for publishers. He noted that unlike some other media industries, publishers have been handed a great gift--millions of devices in the hands of readers that provides publishers the opportunity to create new products. The publishers that prosper, Napck said, will be those that adopt the new skill sets needed to publish in a new marketplace.

While many questions loom over the creation and delivery of digital content, the immediate question confronting publishers in what is happening in the distribution of print books, Thomas Nelson CEO Michael Hyatt said. With the number of bookstores shrinking, publishers will need to find new ways to allow consumers to discover books, Napack said. Just putting books in Amazon is not marketing, he said, adding that publishers will need to more effectively use social media to promote their titles. Hyatt warned that social media can’t be treated as a broadcast medium, but rather needs a targeted message.

Most panelists agreed that the downsizing of the bookstore chains meant that independent booksellers have a chance to mount something of a comeback. Napack said that while independent booksellers’ market share will remain relatively small, their role in bringing books to market will increase in importance. And while there will be fewer bookstores in the future, Napack said he believes there will always be physical bookstores.

Panelists also touched on e-book pricing, with all agreeing with Friedman’s statement that “free is not a business model, it’s a marketing model.” While the “post-agency” e-book price seems to have settled around $9.99, Napack expected there will be a range of prices moving forward. Hyatt observed it would be “mindless” to settle on one price.

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The Fate of the Printed Word...From the Print Media's View

What is the future of the printed word? Is it dead? Will the new digital gadgets finally kill it off?

Maybe not.

Lets take another viewpoint...That of the print media itself.

This from IPEX 2010 (The global event for print, publishing and media that will take place this year in Birmingham, UK during 18 - 25 May 2010):

Will an iPod for Publishing Kill Printed Media?

With Apple’s iPad selling more than 300,000 on its launch in April 2010 and Amazon’s Kindle becoming mainstream, the e-reader market space is hotter than ever and poses a real threat to many print sectors The electronic displacement of print is undoubtedly shifting the competitor landscape. A challenging debate at Ipex 2010 will try to understand the opportunities and threats for printers.

Running on 20 and 24 May, Will an Ipod for publishing kill printed media? Will explore how electronic devices could affect print business models. It is one of a series of free expert panel debates at Ipex 2010 tackling some of the most critical issues facing the print industry today. Produced by world print authority, Pira International in association with Ipex, The Great Print Debates will bring together experts, thought leaders and high-profile industry representatives from 18-25 May 2010.

Playing down fears about the death of printed media, Frank Romano, Professor Emeritus, Rochester Institute of Technology and Great Debate chairperson explains “Neither an Ipub nor its Kindle or Nook manifestations will significantly affect all print volumes. They will affect some informational printed matter such as book, newspaper, and magazine volume. However, these products will continue to have a print base. The reason will be portability - you will not have to tote an electronic device everywhere you go. Print is disposable - and the batteries never run out.”

Pira Print Chief Consultant Neil Falconer also takes a positive view for print businesses but expresses frustration at missed opportunities “The digital media revolution provides printers with a life raft, unfortunately the majority are too busy drowning to realise it.”

One solution according to Pira Consultant and Great Debate chair Sean Smyth is for printers to anticipate new specifying and purchasing channels and get on board quickly. “Buyers will see print as non-key, part of a promotional or marketing spend. Expect new ways of specifying and purchasing, as a Google-App or direct from your I-Phone.”

“There’s no doubt that mainstream media is in trouble” is the more blunt view of PR and marketing commentator Stephen Waddington. “My parents will be the last generation that buys a daily newspaper. I occasionally buy a paper at the weekend when I have the time to read it but otherwise I use a variety of websites. My children will get their news exclusively from the web delivered through devices such as the Amazon Kindle or iPod.”

But Waddington believes this is a story of evolving business models rather than the death of print media per se. “By embracing the internet newspapers such as The Daily Telegraph and The Guardian have become truly international brands. Their challenge is monitising these new audiences.”

The Debates come at a critical time according to Smyth. “The industry is in an unprecedented period of change, exacerbated by the deep recession. Cash conservation is a short-term tactic, not a strategy to build a successful business. These debates provide an opportunity for industry players to put their heads above the parapet and think about how their businesses, and their careers, might progress satisfactorily under new conditions”.

Three other important questions will also be debated: What will the printer of the future look like?, More than ink on paper - how should printers be selling print? and Green print: is it worth it? With full audience participation and interaction, The Great Print Debates will take expert commentary, lively debate and audience interactivity to a completely new level at a major exhibition.

Audience participation and interaction using simple polling technology will allow real-time feedback and drive the questioning of the panel chair, pushing the experts out of their comfort zone. Looking forward to the Debates, Laurel Brunner of Digital Dots reminds the industry, “It’s all too easy to forget that understanding the important issues only comes with interaction and participation.”

Debate participants will take away an exclusive study with scenarios and forecasts to 2020. With input from a special panel of authoritative print and publishing experts from around the world, Print to 2020 will provide a unique global summary of the major challenges, threats and opportunities facing the global printing industry. Building upon the themes discussed at the Ipex/Pira forums, the study will offer an exclusive roadmap for how these issues are likely to develop over the next ten years. Print to 2020 is published by Pira International.